Confidence rising

General trend for the next couple of weeks is being modelled reasonably consistently by the computer models from run to run. That makes forecasting medium range developments easier, but of course the details are prone to significant error, even if the big picture is correct. After today we’ll see it warming up as we go through the week, and the weekend is looking warm and sunny – hopefully a good one for those of you wanting barbecues – but the emphasis at this point is on warm, not hot. My view is hot starts at about 30C (88F) in the UK, but that’s not a scientific observation, just a measure I find helpful. Then during the second week of June temperatures are likely to fall as high pressure retrogresses (big word for goes the wrong way – east to west rather than the usual west to east flow) into the Atlantic allowing cooler air to flood down from the north. What’s more difficult to pin down is rainfall amounts. They look likely to be below average during the first half of June, although some heavy thundery showers may develop, obviously bringing the risk of downpours.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com